New ranking of wind markets across Europe a valuable tool as utilities and IPPs mold new investment strategies in the face of market consolidation, global financial concerns
Barcelona, Spain, 28 January 2009 - As 2009 begins, Europe retains its position as the bedrock of the wind power industry: wind produces 5% of the EU's power, the market has stabilized after rapid early growth, and greenfield opportunities have dwindled in many countries.
But, of the 30 countries evaluated in EER's new study, Wind Power Development Strategies in Europe, 2008-2020, only a handful were approaching market maturity. The remainder-including some of Europe's largest markets, such as France and Italy-are either early growth markets or scaling markets (countries with strong remaining resources and stable regulatory frameworks). Combined, these countries will account for more than 50% of Europe's new wind power capacity over the next 12 years.
"Despite global financial gloom, Europe presents many growth opportunities," says EER Senior Analyst Eduard Sala de Vedruna. "Continued build-out in leading western markets, eastern European market emergence, offshore, re-powering ….all of these drivers are behind Europe's surge to almost 150 GW of added capacity by 2020. EER's Market Attractiveness Ranking is an important indicator of utilities and developers' investment strategies."
For a country-by-country comparison of the European wind power environment to qualify market growth prospects and investment attractiveness, Emerging Energy Research ranks each market based on five key components:
· Wind resources
· Regulatory mechanisms
· Site approval
· Grid connection
· Competition
Some of the most significant shifts highlighted by EER's 2008 Rankings are the improving positions of France (driven by an increasingly transparent permitting process and support for utility-sized projects with a €0.082/kWh feed-in tariff) and Sweden (where an improved regulatory framework has simplified the planning process for projects up to 25 MW.) Countries whose market attractiveness declined in 2008 included Portugal (where a fully permitted or tendered grid capacity will limit development) and Greece (which is struggling with a bureaucratic planning and lengthy permitting process that can take up to five years.)Evaluating 30 wind markets across Europe, EER analysts gathered and assessed multiple quantitative and qualitative inputs for each criterion. EER rankings combined quantitative metrics-such as TWh potential of wind resource, megawatts of grid connection capacity, and current euro values of regulatory incentives-with multiple qualitative factors, including political will, bureaucratic transparency and expediency, and public acceptance of the technology. EER's new study, Wind Power Development Strategies in Europe, 2008-2020, analyzes trends in market growth, competitive shifts across the value chain, and emerging investment opportunities in Europe's wind energy markets in light of the recent financial situation. The study includes detailed forecasts of Europe's wind market through 2020, which reflect the likelihood that Europe will meet its renewables targets, despite a market slowdown over the next few years. Exhibit 2-4: EER European Market Attractiveness: Ranking Overview
Source: Emerging Energy Research LLC, Wind Power Development Strategies in Europe, 2008-2020About Emerging Energy Research As the industry's leading provider of emerging energy market analysis, Emerging Energy Research brings its industry experience and proven track record to provide unrivaled balance and perspective on the world's clean and renewable energy markets. EER works with more than 1000 stakeholders across the industry, providing research-based advice, support, and analysis to executives and key decision-makers including utilities, developers, independent power producers, technology promoters, manufacturers, and investment companies.