Emerging Energy Research Announces Europe Wind Energy Market Forecasts for 2009 to 2020
Marseille, France, March 18, 2009 - The global financial crisis is stalling Europe's wind energy market - new wind plant activations in 2009 could drop by as much as 18% compared to 2008. But with broadening government support and the EU's 2020 RES targets, the long-term fundamentals of Europe's wind energy sector remain strong, according to just-released wind energy market forecasts from Emerging Energy Research. EER's market forecasts were unveiled today at a press conference held at the European Wind Energy Conference (EWEC) in Marseille, France.
Europe is expected to add 7,836 MW of wind power capacity in 2009, down from 9,556 in MW additions in 2008, according to EER's base-case forecast. Improved liquidity in Europe's credit markets, anticipated by the end of 2009, will likely boost growth in 2010 to 2008 levels. Steady growth is expected after 2011, helped by an expanding offshore wind market, with the overall wind market in Europe expected to surpass 16 GW in annual additions by 2020, according to EER.
"Europe, once the traditional market leader, in global wind energy, will be challenged by growth in China and the US. European markets will have to turn to offshore, repowering, and emerging markets for growth," according to EER's Senior Analyst Eduard Sala de Vedruna. "In the longer term, Europe's commitment to wind through RES targets and the passage of the 2020 target, will boost Europe's long-term growth prospects and help maintain its position as a leading global wind energy market."
EER forecasts that global wind energy markets will grow from 29 GW added in 2009 to over 62 GW in annual MW additions in 2020. Europe, the global wind energy market leader in 2008, will be overtaken by Asia and North America.
Exhibit: Europe Wind Energy Annual GW Added, 2008-2020
Source: Emerging Energy Research
The global credit crunch is slowing Europe's pipeline execution with a reduction in the amount of wind projects able to close financing, leading to project postponements in key scaling markets such as the UK, Italy and France. With project finance almost frozen, only large players with strong balance sheets will be able to build new capacity in 2009. According to EER's Sala de Vedruna, major utilities with large pipelines such as EDP, Iberdrola, Endesa, E.ON or RWE have secured financing for their short term pipelines while smaller players have been forced to look for partners or to put their growth plans on stand-by.
EER expects Europe onshore wind growth will drop by 19% in 2009 compared to previous year levels. Western Europe will see the biggest drop in MW added, while longer term, riskier markets in Eastern Europe and offshore may see postponements in project development. EER's findings include the following:
- Spain will keep its position as the largest onshore wind growth market in Europe throughout most of the forecast period. - Germany will remain one of the top five growing markets through 2015, but German onshore growth will decline from market saturation, slow repowering, and large players dedicating resources to offshore development. - Despite a slow start, France will be the leading onshore growth market in Europe in 2010 and onward due mainly to improvements to the permitting process, larger projects, higher wind incentives, and the presence of leading wind players.- The UK will join the group of countries installing over 1 GW annually as of 2015.- In Eastern European, Poland, Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria, will add a combined average of 1.1 GW per year between 2009 and 2020.- Nordic onshore will start ramping up as Finland, Norway and Sweden define support schemes and development plans.
Offshore will be a key component to boosting Europe's long term growth prospects. EER forecasts that Europe offshore will add over 1,100 MW in 2010, led by a diverse group of markets including UK, Germany, and to a lesser extent Sweden. European offshore activity is expected to account for as much as 27% of installed capacity in 2020 with activity expected in 12 European countries, according to EER's forecasts." Offshore developments will be the cornerstone of the development of utilities including E.ON, Centrica, DONG, Vattenfall, or RWE," according to Sala de Vedruna.
About the Forecasts
EER's Europe wind market forecasts, incorporating base-case, high-growth, and low-growth scenarios, are available through our Europe Wind Energy Advisory. EER considers short-term, mid-term, and long-term market drivers and inhibitors gathered from primary research, assessing relevant market participants on a bottom-up and top-down, country by country-basis. EER releases similar forecasts for Global, Asia Pacific, North America and Rest of World wind markets.
About Emerging Energy Research
Emerging Energy Research is a leading industry advisory firm providing unrivaled balance and perspective on the world's clean and renewable energy markets. Based in Cambridge, MA and Barcelona, Spain, EER works with more than 1,000 stakeholders across the industry, providing research-based advice, support, and analysis to executives and key decision-makers including utilities, developers, independent power producers, technology promoters, manufacturers, and investment companies.